Such large errors can led to life threatening conditions, negative impacts on pets and livestock (including poultry), and property damage with an unprepared pubic when temperatures are well below freezing. That magnitude of error seen is unacceptable in today’s high tech observing, modelling, and forecast environment.

My findings were coordinated with NWS scientists and numerical weather modellers, for their consideration. Four agreed to conduct a more extensive formal investigation with me and publish the results.

After a multi-year effort, a paper entitled, “Analysis of Persistent Bias and Suggested Improvements in Forecasting Temperature Patterns over Canaan Valley in West Virginia with the National Blend of Models (NBM)”, was prepared, submitted, and just published in the Journal for Operational Meteorology. While rather technical, it can be read freely online at the link below:

https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2026.1408

I hope the study’s findings are operationally implemented soon by NWS so that we all see improved future public temperature forecasts for Canaan Valley with the especially low minimum temperatures sometimes reported from several professional weather stations located on the valley floor.

SNOWFALL VERIFICATION UPDATE:

The last 2 day’s snowfall amounts) came in at the highest end of your Fearless One’s expectations. Here’s the final numbers…

- Fearless 2-day event snowfall forecast: 5 to 10 inches

- Official NWS amount: 10.2” (Canaan Heights (3,750 ft.))

Total season-to-date snowfall now at the Canaan Heights NWS station is 144.8 inches.

DISCUSSION

The gradual warmup starting today gains traction into the weekend, resulting in morning 40’s and afternoons around 60 (F) Saturday and Sunday. I see no more winter weather through Sunday.

Your next Fearless Bulletin will come when I see more winter weather on the horizon.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

DISCUSSION

The higher 6 to 12 inch snowfall scenario I discussed yesterday ended up the winner with 8 inches plus reported.

Today’s Headlines

1. Have upped today’s new Fearless snowfall mounts from 1 to 2 to 2 to 4 inches at populated elevations (3,000 to 4,000 ft.). Some heavier snow squalls are possible this afternoon into early evening as Lake Michigan moisture may combine with some some weak instability moving back in.

2. The warming trend gets delayed 12 hours, now beginning Thursday instead of Wednesday afternoon.

FEARLESS FORECAST

Tuesday: Mid-teens and breezy to start with temps flat-lined in the upper teens F all day. Leftover upslope snow varies in intensity and slacks off by late morning but another weak disturbance arrives quickly in the afternoon into early evening from the west with another increase in upslope snow (some possibly heavy squalls).

Lake Michigan moisture may get entrained into the later day west flow, contributing to stronger afternoon snow squalls. Temperatures drop to between 5 and 10° F by Wednesday morning.

New 24-hr. Upslope snowfall by 8 am Wednesday: 2 to 4 inch

Total 2-Day Forecast Event Snowfall Total: 8 to 12 inches (will verify on this updated forecast amount).

Wednesday & Beyond: Gradual warming trend begins….temps rising to morning 30’s and afternoon 50’s F by Saturday into Sunday, then cooling again Sunday night into Monday.

The next Fearless Bulletin around 9 am Wednesday with the typical post 2-day snowfall verification amounts.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

Your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Pittsburgh, PA has jsut upped it’s “WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY” snowfall forecast for Tucker County from 2 to 4 inches to 3 to 7 inches, now closely in line with this morning’s Fearless Forecast of 4 to 8 inches for the 2-day event total ending Tuesday night. Blowing and drifting snow should also develop tonight into Tuesday morning as northwest winds ramp up with gusts of 40 to 50 MPH after dark.

Be prepared for difficult driving conditions overnight into Tuesday.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

DISCUSSION

Another very sharp cold front sweeps over the Canaan hump around noon (similar to last Thursday’s event). Rain and possibly a rumble of thunder precede the frontal passage.

A good deal of uncertainty remains in accumulating snowfall amounts from this cold front. If the front continues plowing east and drier west winds quickly take over, snowfall is limited to about 6 hours and accumulates about 2 to 4 inches at populated elevations (3,000 to 4,000 ft.).

However, there is a less likely possibility that moist air lags behind the front longer. That scenario produces snowfall for a longer period. This less likely scenario produces a more robust 6 to 12 inches or more snow. I will be watching developments like a hawk today to see if the current underdog scenario becomes the front runner…

A bit of lagging instability into Wednesday morning could produce another two inches or snow after the bulk of the frontal synoptic/upslope snow ends Tuesday morning.

FEARLESS FORECAST

Monday: Around 60 F with gusty south winds, rain showers and possibly a rumble of thunder early followed by a strong cold frontal passage around noon. After the frontal passage, winds back to west and ramp up, gusting to 35 to 50 MPH. Plummeting temperatures fall to around freezing by sunset and to mid-teens F by sunrise Tuesday. Rain showers turn to upslope snow late afternoon to sunset.

Upslope snow and blowing and drifting snow continues overnight, gradually diminishing Tuesday morning. Another batch of light upslope snow commences Tuesday afternoon/evening as another weak disturbance overruns the high ground into Wednesday morning.

New 24-hr. snowfall by 8 am Tuesday: 3 to 6 inches.

Tuesday: Frigid with temps flat-lined in the upper teens F. Upslope snow slacks off by late morning but another weak disturbance arrives in the afternoon into evening with more light upslope snow. Temperatures drop to around 10 F by Wednesday morning.

New 24-hr. snowfall by 8 am Wednesday: 1 to 2 inch

Total 2-Day Event Snowfall Total: 4 to 8 inches (range uncertainly increases with multiple day events).

Wednesday & Beyond: Gradual warming trend begins….temps rising to morning 30’s and afternoon 50’s F by weekend.

The next Fearless Bulletin around 9 am Tuesday with an update on snowfall.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

DISCUSSION

The more seasonable mid-March pattern in place is about to flip-flop to more Polar-like conditions Monday evening into Tuesday as yet another frigid air-mass plunges south out of Canada’s Northwest Territories into the mid-Atlantic states. It will be rather short lived.

The polar air will be ushered in by a strong intensifying Great Lakes blizzard moving northeast into eastern Canada. This storm will generate widespread strong winds both ahead of the intensifying system and behind it’s trailing cold front which will usher in the mid-winter cold as it sweeps up and over Canaan’s hump Monday afternoon.

Post frontal upslope (elevation terrain induced) snow is likely at all elevations but big, fat flies remaining in the ointment cloud the snowfall amounts picture greatly at this time.

Model guidance is literally all over the place with amounts, ranging from a trace (air-mass dries out quickly on west winds) to 14 inches plus (more favorable moist northwest fetch off the lakes). Waiting until tomorrow (Monday) morning to see how this all plays out but taking a conservative path right now suggests a 2 to 4 inch, elevation-dependent snowfall event.

Your next Fearless Bulletin is scheduled for around 9 am Monday with an update on the upslope snow Monday and Tuesday.

Hope you get a chance to read the SPECIAL REPORT on the historic sleet slides in Pendleton County sent previously two mornings ago….

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

SNOWFALL VERIFICATION UPDATE:

Updated yesterday’s additional morning’s upslope post frontal snow with the extra amounts I expected after 8 am…..the totals (2 day’s measured amounts) came in right the middle of your Fearless One’s expectations. Here are the final numbers…

- Fearless event snowfall forecast: trace to 2 inches

- Average of two official published NWS observers snowfall amounts: 1.2” (1.5” at Canaan Heights (3,750 ft.) & 0.8” near Deerfield Village on the valley floor (3,250 ft.)).

DISCUSSION

The more seasonable mid-March pattern is here….next Monday into Tuesday looks quite cold (lows around 10° F sunrise & afternoon max only in the upper teens F afternoon). There continues to be a chance for some accumulating upslope snow. The real cold temps won’t last long…

Your next Fearless Bulletin is scheduled for around 9 am Sunday with an update on the cold and potential upslope snow Monday and Tuesday.

Hope you get a chance to read the SPECIAL REPORT on the historic sleet slides in Pendleton County sent previously this morning….

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

On January 25, 2026, an extraordinarily rare combination of intense meteorological forces produced a massive winter storm across North America, colossal from even 22, 236 miles above the Earth’s equator (Figure 1).

Figure 1: NOAA GOES Satellite Imagery of the January 25, 2026 Massive North American Winter Storm Responsible for the Historic Pendleton County, WV Sleet Slides.

The huge disturbance generated unprecedented sleet accumulations across a broad swath of the mid‑Atlantic states which triggered unusually large and numerous sleet slides in the steep north‑central mountains of West Virginia.

Pendleton County, located just east of the Eastern Continental Divide (locally known as the Allegheny Front), was especially hard hit. Around three inches of sleet, combined with the county’s steep mountain slopes and deep gullies of the rugged German Valley and Smoke Hole Canyon, created ideal conditions for large‑scale “sleet slides” to accumulate at the base of slopes. In many locations, slides funneled into narrow chutes and buried both lanes of county and state roads beneath deep, dense deposits (Figure 2).

Figure 2: 100-Foot Plus Wide 10-Foot Deep Sleet Slides on Smoke Hole Canyon Road (photo courtesy of Rick Gillespie, Pendleton Co., WV Emergency Manager).

AREA MOST HEAVILY IMPACTED

National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists and others in the private sector identified the storm early on as “potentially historic” in intensity, size, and impact. At its peak, the system stretched nearly 2,000 miles from the Mexico-U.S. border into southeastern Canada. NWS winter weather alerts covered a similarly vast corridor, affecting up to 230 million residents.

More than 10,000 flights were canceled or delayed nationwide, and numerous states enacted travel bans. Twenty‑four state governors, including West Virginia’s, issued emergency declarations.

Regionally, the storm’s footprint extended from the mid-west to the Atlantic Ocean and the northeast.

Remarkably, natural sleet slide remains were still visible on March 15, 2026 by the author at the base of 50‑foot smooth bedrock cliffs on the Virginia banks of the Potomac River near Chain Bridge, only four miles from urban Washington, D.C.

Pendleton County, positioned squarely within the impacted zone and characterized by some of the most extreme relief and long drainage chutes in the region, became an epicenter for colossal sleet slides.

PENDLETON COUNTY’S STEEP TOPOGRAPHY

The largest sleet slides occurred within one of the most topographically extreme landscapes in West Virginia. While Germany Valley provided the immediate setting for many slides, the adjacent Smoke Hole Canyon, located just east, also exhibits similarly extreme relief and impacts (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Pendleton, County, WV’s Numerous Exceptionally Steep Ravines and Gullies (center of image surrounding Seneca Rocks) (courtesy of Google Earth).

Within Germany Valley, sleet accumulated on high‑angle slopes and narrow ravines descending from North Fork Mountain, Cave Mountain, and other sub-ridges on the eastern side of the Allegheny Front. These ravines acted as natural chutes, accelerating down-slope movement once accumulating sleet layers destabilized. Smooth bedrock surfaces further reduced friction, allowing sleet to transition rapidly from static accumulation to channelized slides.

Smoke Hole Canyon’s precipitous walls and deeply incised channels mirror the same factors present in Germany Valley: steep slopes, confined drainage pathways, and abrupt elevation changes. In this context, the sleet slides were not isolated anomalies but natural outcomes of steep terrain combined with rare meteorological conditions.

FACTORS CONDUCTIVE TO THE FORMATION OF LARGE SLEET SLIDES

Several factors combined to produce the unusually large sleet slides observed during this storm:

1. Steep topography (generally slopes ≥ 30 degrees)

2. Long, continuous gullies and ravines that funnel granular material down-slope

3. Low temperatures that keep sleet dry, hard, and low‑friction

4. Lower‑angle slope bases that allow slides to slow, spread, and accumulate

5. Large amounts of sleet, the more the bigger the potential sleet slides

Sleet, professionally called “ice pellets”, rolls, bounces, and accumulates like granular material. When deep enough and situated on steep slopes, sleet accumulations can fail catastrophically in wave‑like pulses. Continued sleet accumulation repeatedly loads the slope until instability is reached again, producing successive waves of movement.

At the base of steep slopes, deposits spread into distinctive “fans”, similar to talus or alluvial fans formed by rockfall or water‑driven debris flows.

Because no formal one meteorological term exists for this rare phenomenon, the author prefers the term “sleet slides”, though other informal terms including sleet fans, sleet sluffs, granular‑flow sleet slides, and sleet avalanches are sometimes used.

While sleet slides can behave somewhat like small snow avalanches (lacking clouds of powdery snow in the air), they are typically slower, more contained, and far less destructive, yet still a force of nature in their own right.

During this storm, temperatures remained in the single digits F. Such frigid conditions caused sleet pellets to behave like tiny metal ball bearings, hard, round, and extremely low‑friction. Unlike snowflakes, they do not interlock or bond. Without melting, they remain individual rigid spheres, ready to mobilize under the right conditions.

Sleet accumulations can reach a “critical angle of repose”, typically 30 to 40 degrees for dry sleet. Damp sleet can remain stable at steeper angles (45 to 55 degrees or more) due to increased bonding between pellets.

In Pendleton County, some sleet fans reportedly reached hundreds of feet in width and 10–20 feet in depth (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Large Front End Loader Clearing 15-to-20 Ft. Deep Sleet Slides on Harper Gap Road Just South of Seneca Rocks, Pendleton County (photo courtesy of Bucky Evans, WVDOH).

Road crews reported slides covering both lanes of travel in some places, requiring heavy equipment, front‑end loaders, graders, and rotary blowers, to clear the dense, heavy deposits (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Eight-Foot Deep Sleet Slides Blocking Both Lanes of Snowy Mtn. Rd. Near Dice Hinkle Rd, Pendleton Co., WV (Photos courtesy of Amberly Bennett (via Rick Gillespie)) .

SYNOPTIC SITUATION

From January 23–27, 2026, a vast winter storm produced deadly and catastrophic ice and snow impacts from northern Mexico to Canada. Originating from an upper‑level disturbance on January 22, the system moved steadily eastward, depositing a huge swath of heavy, mixed, wintry precipitation.

January 25th was marked by a historic clash of two atmospheric “titans”. As Connor Belak, lead winter weather forecaster at the NWS Sterling, VA Weather Forecast Office put it, it was “an epic battle between the Pineapple and Polar Expresses”.

• The Pineapple Express was: a 4,000‑foot‑thick layer of above‑freezing air between 6,000 and10,000 feet

• The Polar Express was: a shallow but extremely frigid surface layer with temperatures in the single digits F.

Their collision produced an extreme meteorological setup rarely, if ever, observed previously in the mid‑Atlantic. The aftermath left behind one of the greatest sleet storms in the region’s recorded history.

By January 25, the storm had reached the mid-Atlantic and Northeast and began transitioning into a nor’easter. Gusty winds and heavy snow persisted in New England even as the system pulled away the following day.

Precipitation, both rain and snow from in and above the Pineapple Express layer, all melted in that above-freezing warm layer, only to freeze into sleet upon entering the frigid sub-freezing Polar air below closer to the surface. This resulted in an unprecedented eight hours of moderate-to-heavy sleet (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Conceptual Illustration of Clash Between the Pineapple Express and the Polar Express on January 25, 2026 Over Pendelton County, WV.

Early National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts favored 10–16 inches of all powdery snow for Pendleton County and much of the surrounding areas. However, as models converged on the advection of the warm‑nosed layer aloft farther and farther north, sleet became the dominant precipitation forecast type. Roughly two inches of total liquid equivalent fell from the system, in most places composed of 3 to 4 inches of snow and about three inches of sleet on top of that.

The rare extreme atmospheric 3-D profile, a vertical “sandwich” of warm, above freezing air over dense frigid Arctic air, created the perfect historical setup for the historic sleet storm.

Was the extreme nature of this event impacted by global warming? Multiple climate scientists and news outlets have already claimed so, but it will take additional research to untangle that argument.

MEDIA & EYEWITNESS REPORTS

Due to the sheer size and severity of impacts on society, especially on transportation, the storm received widespread national and regional coverage. Additional local eyewitness accounts were collected for documentation here.

Residents in their 70s, 80s, and 90’s, lifelong locals, reported never having seen or heard anything comparable. Patricia Rutherford wrote on Facebook: “In all my 73 years, I have never saw anything like this till now,” referring to videos of pulsating sleet slides in adjacent Tucker County to the west.

The President’s Day Storm of 2003, while notable in sleet amounts and far greater in snowfall totals, fell well short in comparison for sleet.

For up to eight hours, pulses of sleet slides swooshed down steep hillsides and gullies while temperatures remained locked in the single digits F. Some sleet fans reportedly reached depths of 10–20 feet (Figures 7 & 8).

Figure 7: Cleared 15-Foot Deep Sleet Slide in Harper Gap, Pendleton Co. WV (photo courtesy of Josh Brenneman).

Figure 8: Cutting a Path Through a 12-Foot Deep Sleet Slide Across the Public Entrance to Smoke-Hole Caverns, Pendleton Co., WV. (photo courtesy of Josh Hendrick via Josh Brenneman).

WBOY‑TV (Clarksburg, WV) reported that Pendleton County Emergency Management stated “there is still much work to be done… several roads remain closed… due to sleet slides,” prompting Pendleton County emergency management manager requests for additional equipment from Charleston. Mountain Media, LLC reported that Smoke Hole Canyon’s main access road was buried under 15-plus feet of slide sleet (Figure 8).

In neighboring Rockingham County, Virginia, snow and ice reportedly caused the collapse of multiple poultry and greenhouses.

Videos documented the pulse‑like, cascading nature of the slides, resembling waterfalls in long‑exposure photographs. Local residents Andrea and Jeremy Judy of Judy Gap described the sound as “more like water… like flowing water” (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Sleet Slides (Waterfall-Like) in Progress near Judy Gap, WV (photo courtesy of Andrea and Jeremy Judy).

Rick Gillespie, a 47‑year resident and the Pendleton County Emergency Services Coordinator, provided a detailed account. While the county occasionally experiences large snowstorms and small snow avalanches, he had “never experienced anything even close to the scale of this sleet storm”.

He reported that the storm began with several inches of snow, followed by roughly eight hours of moderate-to-heavy sleet. Ongoing slides produced sounds resembling waterfalls with a metallic hissing quality, “similar to bunches of BBs rolling downhill.”

The largest slides reported occurred in Smoke Hole Canyon, along Smoke Hole Road, and in the vicinity of Seneca Rocks, and especially along Harper Gap Road west of State Route 28. Nearly three consecutive miles of Smoke Hole Road were blocked, with sleet piles approaching 20 feet deep in favored gullies.

In one location, Gillespie reported a slide covered both lanes of the road and extended down-slope to block half the ice covered South Branch of the Potomac River.

Clearing all impacted roads took several days. Front‑end loaders and graders proved most effective; snow blowers were a distant third.

Gillespie commented that he thought that some of the largest sleet fans in shady, north‑facing gullies might persist into May due to their depth and density.

IMPACTS

Nationwide, the storm was blamed for 171 deaths and left more than one million customers without power. Damages exceeded $4 billion.

Locally, Pendleton County experienced severe travel disruptions lasting several days on the most impacted roads. While some structures in adjacent counties collapsed under the weight of snow and sleet slides, no such damage was documented in Pendleton County.

County officials did request additional heavy equipment from the state to clear impassable roads quicker.

Following West Virginia’s emergency declaration, President Donald Trump approved federal disaster assistance to support cleanup and recovery.

SUMMARY

The January 25, 2026 winter storm will be remembered as one of the most extraordinary sleet events in mid‑Atlantic history. A rare vertical temperature profile, warm Pacific air overriding deeply entrenched Arctic air, produced about eight continuous hours of moderate to heavy sleet across the north‑central West Virginia mountains. Nowhere were the consequences more dramatic than in Pendleton County, where steep topography, narrow gullies, and deep valley walls amplified the sleet storm’s impacts.

The combination of large sleet amounts (around 3 inches plus on level surfaces), continuous single‑digit temperatures, and accumulating granular, low‑friction sleet created ideal conditions for widespread, gargantuan sleet slides. These slides funneled into chutes and gullies, burying roads, and forming alluvial‑like fans up to 20 feet deep and 100 feet wide.

Local residents, including seniors with 70 to 90 years of experience with the county’s winters, reported never having witnessed anything remotely comparable to the sleet aspect of the storm.

While the storm caused billions in damage and significant loss of life nationwide, it’s meteorological and physical impacts in Pendleton County are uniquely historic.

The sleet slides of January 25, 2026 will remain a benchmark for future research, emergency planning, and regional extreme winter climatology.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author gratefully acknowledges the assistance of the following individuals:

• Rick Gillespie (Franklin, WV): provided photos and eyewitness account from a decades‑long emergency manager’s perspective and his review and comment on the article.

• Josh Brenneman (Bittinger, MD): provided photos, contacts, and eyewitness account from a local climate and weather expert’s perspective.

• Andrea and Jeremy Judy (Circleville, WV): provided photos and firsthand accounts as lifelong Pendleton County residents.

• Mary Scott (Riverton, WV): assisted in locating local residents to provide firsthand accounts and photos.

[END]

SNOWFALL VERIFICATION:

This morning’s upslope post frontal snow performed in the middle of your Fearless One’s expectations. It’s about done (maybe another half inch or less) so here are the numbers…

- Fearless event snowfall forecast: trace to 2 inches

- Average of two official published NWS observers snowfall amounts: 0.7” (1.0” at Canaan Heights (3,750 ft.) & 0.3” near Deerfield Village on the valley floor (3,250 ft.).

DISCUSSION

1. The noticeably colder pattern will last for about the next week but the change will feature more typical March weather (morning 20’s and afternoon mid-40’s F) with temperatures acting like a yo-yo on steroids.

2. Next Monday into Tuesday looks quite cold (low teens sunrise & 20’s F afternoon) with a chance for some accumulating snow. The cold won’t last long…

The next Fearless Bulletin will be issued when I see more winter weather on the horizon.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

DISCUSSION

1. Potent cold front later today MAY set off severe afternoon thunderstorms with hail and tornadoes….stay tuned to National Weather Service watches and warning as the day progresses. Plummeting temperatures early Thursday morning. Some post frontal upslope snow is possible Thursday morning. Snow amounts continue to look low, in the trace to 2 inch range but there is uncertanty.

2. A noticeably colder pattern is developing that could last for the next 10 days. Some quite cold but brief periods may occur with below seasonal mid-March averages (morning 20’s (F) and afternoon mid-40’s F). Don’t put away winter clothes yet. The change will feature more typical March weather with temperatures acting like a yo-yo on steroids. There may be several chances for snow during this period.

The next Fearless Bulletin around 9 am Thursday with an update on Thursday’s snow potential and a discussion of the weather beyond.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

DISCUSSION

1. Still watching for potential accumulating post frontal/upslope snow Thursday. With two day to go, it’s currently looking a tad weaker, in the 1 to 3 inch range.

2. A noticeably colder pattern appears to be developing that could last for the next two weeks. Not frigid but still below seasonal mid-March averages of morning 20’s (F) and afternoon mid-40’s (F). Don’t put away winter clothes quite yet (Figures 1 & 2 below).

The next Fearless Bulletin around 9 am Thursday with an update on Thursday’s snow potential and a discussion of the weather beyond.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

Figure 1. NWS 6-to-10 Day Temperature Outlook.

Figure 2. NWS 8-to-14 Day Temperature Outlook.

DISCUSSION

1. Watching for potential accumulating snow Thursday. With four day to go, it’s currently looking like a 1 to 4 inch event.

2. Yesterday’s official National Weather Service recorded high temperature on the valley floor (near Deerfield Village) of 76° F (thanks for giving me a head’s up on this Elaine) was a new daily record max high, totally shattering the previous daily high record (since 1944; 82 yrs.) of 68° F in both 2000 and 1974.

The next Fearless Bulletin around 9 am Tuesday with an update on Thursday’s snow potential and a discussion of the weather farther out.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman

(aka Bob Leffler)

SNOWFALL VERIFICATION:

Yesterday’s warm frontal snow performed within your Fearless One’s expectations. Luckily icing was minimal and temperatures had risen to well above freezing at all elevations well before sunrise.

- Fearless event snowfall forecast: 1 to 4 inches

- Average of two NWS observers snowfall amounts: 1.5” (1.3” at Canaan Heights (3,750 ft.) & 1.6” near Deerfield Village on the valley floor (3,250 ft.).

DISCUSSION

Before signing off until further notice, I have concerns about the upcoming spring melt and high water/potential flooding through the next three days, especially if thunderstorms develop later in the week. There is still one to one and a half feet of snowpack above 4,000 feet with lots of liquid equivalent in it that will run off due to a combination of extremely mild temperatures (day & night) plus 1 to 2 inches of rain expected over those next 3 days (Figure 1 below). I would take precautions now to prepare for areas prone to high water during such times.

The next Fearless Bulletin will be when I see potential winter weather showing up again in the crystal ball.

The Fearless Canaan Weatherman

(aka Bob Leffler)

SPECIAL REPORT: SUMMARY OF THE 2025-26 CANAAN VALLEY WINTER

I compiled select preliminary NOAA/National Weather Service weather/climate data statistics highlighting the overall 3-month (Dec. 1, 2025 through Feb.28, 2026) winter weather conditions on Canaan Valley’s 3,250 foot high floor. They are presented below.

Thirty-year decadal averages are based on the latest World Meteorological Organization’s 1991-2020 period. Data are preliminary until quality controlled and published by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) in Asheville, NC, typically several months after data receipt there.

Overall, it was a cold, below average snowfall winter (Dec. 1 through Feb. 28). There were two special highlights:

SUMMARY:

1. A very unusual snow/heavy sleet storm on January 25, 2026 created a snow base aptly called “snowcrete” (vs. concrete) by some due to the extremely unusually dense mass of the heavy snow/sleet accumulation that later froze into a concrete-like layer in the snow pack. A couple inches of sleet accumulation on top of several inches of snow in this event led to historically humongous “sleet slides” developing at the base of steep slopes, gullies, and ravines (Figure 1 below).

   The area hardest hit by large sleet slides was in the steep topography of Pendelton County to the east eastern Tucker County (your Fearless One plans to publish another special report on this event packed full of awesome pictures in about one month).

2. The average 3 month winter temperature of 24.8° F was 2.9° F colder ( a moderate departure) than the 30-yr. (1991-2020) avg. of 27.7° F and the coldest winter in 11 years since the 24.3° F average of the 2014-15 winter.

3. The measured observed winter snowfall was 86.9 inches, 11.9 inches (12%) below the 30-year average of 98.8 inches and 14 inches less than last winter.

4. The lowest temperature reached of -19° F was the lowest in four winters since a -21° F was recorded in 2011/22 winter.

5. Total liquid equivalent precipitation (the sum of all rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain) was 12.41 inches, 1.77” below avg. (12%) of the 14.18” winter average. This continues the dry conditions of 2025. According the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (2-26-26), all of the eastern half of Tucker County remains in “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought” conditions.

6. The number of days with a snow depth of 1-inch or greater was 62 (out of 90), which is near average.

7. The number of days with 0° F or lower minimum temperature was 15 (out of 90), the greatest such number in 12 years (1993/94) and the fourth lowest in the last 37 years (coldest 11th percentile).

8. The number of days with a maximum temperature of 32° F or lower was 42 (out of 90), the tenth greatest such number in last 33 yrs.

9. The number of days with a minimum temperature of 32° F or lower was 78 (out of 90), which was near average.

TODAY’S HEADLINES:

1. A messy winter precipitation event now looks more likely to begin Monday as snow before transiting late Monday afternoon or early evening over to the dreaded mix of sleet and freezing overnight rain to plain rain Tuesday morning. Due to freezing temperatures at cloud level lingering longer than expected yesterday, I am upping snowfall/sleet amounts to 1 to 4 inches on the front end of this approaching warm front.

   Sleet and freezing rain overnight could make for difficult driving conditions Tuesday morning before the changeover to plain rain as temperatures at cloud level and the surface rise to above freezing.

Fearless Forecast

Monday: Chilly with temps in the 20’s at sunrise, rising very slowly to 30° F by late afternoon. Light warm frontal snow beginning by mid-morning and continuing intermittently into late afternoon before transiting to sleet and freezing rain during the late afternoon into the overnight and then changing to plain rain before sunrise Tuesday.

Temperatures rise overnight, warming to above freezing before dawn starting at the highest elevations first and then working down in elevation as the warmer air progresses lower. Driving could be difficult overnight into Tuesday morning before the warmup begins.

New 24 hr. Snowfall/Sleet by 8 am Tuesday: 1 to 4 inches. (note: snow and sleet accumulations are entered in the same phenomenon column for weather & climate records).

Tuesday: Once temperatures rise above freezing Tuesday morning at the surface, I expect them to continue climbing steadily, reaching the mid-50’s and higher by Wednesday into next weekend! Morning lows will also stay well above freezing during that period.

Next update Tuesday morning with snow verification statistics.

Notes:

1. I will issue a winter weather summary later this week.

2. I also am working on issuing a special report on the historically humongous sleet slides that occurred in the area during the 1-25-26 snow/sleet storm, especially in hardest hit Pendelton County.

For detailed up to date official NWS local forecasts, visit https://www.weather.gov/pbz/from your NWS Pittsburgh, PA Weather Forecast Office.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

TODAY’S HEADLINES:

1. Winter precipitation now looks likely to begin Monday with a snow to sleet to freezing rain to plain rain scenario looking likely between Monday and Tuesday morning. While I don’t expect more than an inch of snow on the front end, sleet and freezing rain could make for difficult driving conditions into Tuesday morning before the changeover to plain rain.

2. The extended NWS 14-day outlooks suggests Punxsutawney Phil may have to eat crow for dinner, at least for a while, based on his ’s groggy wake-up-from-hibernation forecast in February for six more weeks of winter. A big-time Spring Break looks to be looming on the horizon with 70° F possible up to 3,000 ft. by next weekend!

Snow-making Outlook: Conditions OK into Monday evening but then deteriorating quickly Tuesday morning until further notice to take your pick; zero, zilch, zip, nada…what more can I say?

Fearless Forecast

Monday: Chilly with light snow possible by sunrise and continuing intermittently before transiting to sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon into the overnight and then changing to plain rain before sunrise Tuesday. Temperatures rise overnight, warming to above freezing before dawn. Driving could be difficult early Tuesday morning before the warmup begins.

New 24 hr. Snowfall/Sleet by 8 am Tuesday: 2 inches or less. (note: snow and sleet accumulations are entered in the same phenomenon column for weather & climate records).

Tuesday: Once temperatures exceed freezing Tuesday morning, I expect them to continue climbing steadily reaching the mid-50’s and higher by Wednesday into next weekend! Morning lows will also stay well above freezing during that period.

Next update when I see some sign of winter weather returning. I also am working on issuing a special report on the historically humongous sleet slides that occurred in the area during the 1-25-26 snow/sleet storm, especially in hardest hit Pendelton County.

For detailed up to date official NWS local forecasts, visit https://www.weather.gov/pbz/from your NWS Pittsburgh, PA Weather Forecast Office.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

SNOWFALL VERIFICATION:

Yesterday’s disturbance-related Fearless snowfall forecast was a tale of strong gradients, on target in the south and much less so to the north with the anticipated disturbance that unexpectedly formed just south of Canaan. It snowed very heavily for several hours but the heavy band was narrow. Ski resorts picked up a very quick 4 to 5 inches while with northern areas of the Canaan High Country, including Davis, and Thomas, received only around one inch or less.

- Fearless event snowfall forecast: 3 to 6 inches

- The estimated average snowfall amount at populated elevations (3,000 to 4,000 ft.) was about 3 inches, ranging from 1 to 5 inches, lowest north increasing to south valley (based on cams, official and unofficial reports).

NOTE: Sorry for the delayed Fearless bulletin post yesterday morning, had it ready to go at 9 am and an emergency rear it’s ugly head so I was delayed over 3 hours in release time….

TODAY’S HEADLINES:

1. The threat of winter weather continues for Sunday night into Tuesday but the trend is diminishing of late. While colder air looks to make a brief comeback with this disturbance, milder air will try to advance with lots of uncertainty continuing in the details. Overall, it looks like a snow changing to mixed precipitation, to all rain event.

2. Extended NWS temperature outlooks now show an extremely strong, long lasting warming trend that may last weeks (Figures 1, 2, & 3 below). Is winter about to end early? Way too early to call.

Snow-making Outlook: Conditions poor today, improving Sunday night through Monday night, then deteriorating thereafter to none Tuesday through next weekend again and well beyond.

Next update around 9 am Sunday.

For detailed up to date official NWS local forecasts, visit https://www.weather.gov/pbz/from your NWS Pittsburgh, PA Weather Forecast Office.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

SNOWFALL VERIFICATION:

The last one-day upslope Fearless snowfall forecast was a bust. The rather tight precipitation shield with a disturbance (Alberta Clipper) passing north of the area yesterday stayed farther north than I expected, hence the much lower than expected snowfall. These days, forecasters live by the models and die by the models. I lowered the forecast amounts once I saw the actual weaker than expected snowfall observations on numerous cams in the area and model guidance, late in the game, picked up on the change.

- Fearless event snowfall forecast: 2 to 4 inches (was lowered from 3 to 7” originally)

- Estimated snowfall amount (based on cams, official liquid rainfall amounts, and unofficial reports) was 1 inch.

TODAY’S HEADLINES:

1. Today’s disturbance to our south will produce an unexpected heavy wet snow from late morning into mid-afternoon as follows:

3,000 to 3,500 ft.: 3 to 5 inches

3,500 to 4,500 ft.: 4 to 6 inches

4,500 ft. +: 5 to 7 inches

2. An additional bigger threat of significant winter weather continues to loom Sunday night into Tuesday. While colder air looks to make a brief comeback with this disturbance, milder air will try to advance this far north… lots of uncertainty continues with this potential event being still a good 3.5 days plus to showtime.

3. Extended NWS 14-day outlooks suggests a strong warming trend now.

Snow-making Outlook: Conditions become fair to poor today into Sunday.

Next update around 9 am Saturday).

For detailed up to date official NWS local forecasts, visit https://www.weather.gov/pbz/from your NWS Pittsburgh, PA Weather Forecast Office.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

The National Weather Service (NWS) ‘WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY” remains in effect for eastern Tucker County until 1 pm this afternoon. The advisory calls for “2 to 4 inches of snow”. Yesterday’s statement calling for it possibly mixing with rain has been dropped (now in keeping with yesterday’s Fearless Forecast).

The National Weather Service issued a“WIND ADVISORY” in effect through 1 pm this afternoon. The Advisory is for “west winds 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH expected”.

Last night, peak gusts were measured by two VA Tech research weather stations atop exposed balds on Cabin Mountain (4, 60 ft.) and the Allegheny Front (Bear Rocks, 4,050 ft.) of 60 and 65 MPH respectively!

TODAY’S HEADLINES:

1. Snowfall didn’t get out of the starting gate overnight. The disturbance producing it tracked further north than I expected. I have lowered this event’s total snowfall forecast to 2 to 4 inches this morning (from 3 to 7” yesterday).

2. The other disturbance from the south that could impact the Canaan tonight with more precipitation (mixed?) is less of a threat and may stay south of the area as above freezing milder air pushes in.

3. There is another threat of significant winter weather looms Sunday night into Tuesday now. Colder air looks to make a brief comeback but plenty of uncertainty this far out.

4. The extended 6 to 10 day outlook suggests a warming trend with seasonable temperatures (20’s/40’s F). Following that, significant above average temperatures may be lurking on the horizon in the 8 to 14 day window.

Snow-making Outlook: Conditions become fair to poor today into Sunday.

Next update around 9 am tomorrow (Thursday) with snow verification.

For detailed up to date official NWS local forecasts, visit https://www.weather.gov/pbz/from your NWS Pittsburgh, PA Weather Forecast Office.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a ‘WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY” for all the WV High Country. The advisory is in effect from 9 pm this evening through 1 pm Wednesday. It call “for 2 to 5 inches of snow which may mix with rain Wednesday”.

SNOWFALL VERIFICATION:

The last 3 day storm (disturbance/upslope enhanced snowfall) performed at the higher end of your Fearless One’s expectations.

- Fearless event snowfall forecast: 8 to16 inches

- Average measured NWS observers snowfall amounts (1 locations): 15.6” at Canaan Heights ( 3,750 ft.)

TODAY’S HEADLINES

1. More significant accumulating upslope snow is likely tonight (Tuesday) into Wednesday morning (I expect all snow above 3,000 ft.).

2. Another disturbance from the south could impact the Canaan Wednesday night into Thursday with a mixed bag of precipitation (snow-to-rain, rain, or freezing rain) as milder, above freezing air tries to push into the area.

3. Yesterday’s extended outlook suggested a warming trend. While still true, it’s looking cooler now, with seasonable temperatures (20’s/40’s F) more likely for the next week.

DISCUSSION:

The record-breaking nor’easter blizzard that dumped up to 32 inches of snow in some coastal locations from NJ to MA is now well off the MA coast and moving northeast. That storm’s back end was indirectly responsible for yesterday’s occasional blizzard conditions and 6 to 8 inch upslope snow. VA Tech Canaan weather station’s wind sensors (anemometers) iced up so no wind data for the storm are available…

FEARLESS DAILY FORECAST

Tuesday: Cold, 10/25° F. Leftover upslope light snow this morning tapers off by mid-morning. An additional inch or so is possible above 3,000 feet. A brief lull in snow develops for the afternoon and evening hours before more accumulating snow moves in between 11 pm and 1 am Wednesday as a frontal system approaches. Snow likely overnight.

New 24-Hr. Snowfall by 8 am Wednesday: 2 to 4 inch

Wednesday : Moderating temperatures, 20/35° F. Morning snow tapers off late morning.

New 24-Hr. Snowfall by 8 am Thursday: 1 to 3 inch

2-Day Event Total (Sun. through Tue.) Snowfall: 3 to 7 inches (range increases with multiple day events)

Snow-making Outlook: Conditions excellent through Tuesday before returning to more average seasonal diurnal ups and downs mid-week through next weekend.

Next update around 9 am tomorrow (Wednesday) morning with an update on the Wednesday evening disturbance’s precipitation types.

For detailed up to date official NWS local forecasts, visit https://www.weather.gov/pbz/Pittsburgh, PA

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)

Today’s Headlines…..

1. The National Weather Service “WINTER STORM WARNING” posted for the all the WV and MD High Country remains in effect through 1:00 am Tuesday morning. The WARNING is for “Heavy snow. Total accumulations between 9 and 15 inches, with locally higher totals possible. A few wind gusts to 45 MPH are possible Sunday night into Monday. It goes on to state “Near blizzard conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday, as visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile at times due to falling and blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches”.

2. The National Weather Service has issued a“WIND ADVISORY” in effect through 3:00 pm this Monday afternoon. The Advisory is for “wind gusts to 50 MPH”.

3. More accumulating upslope snow and occasional blizzard conditions continue throughout the day causing hazardous driving conditions.

DISCUSSION:

Mother Nature was in a good mood and decided to cooperate with your Fearless Forecaster this time…I’ll enjoy it while i can!!!

The nor’easter is now well off the DE/NJ coast and moving northeast. The primary storm dumped about 7 inches new snow in the last 24 hours (more above 4,000 ft.), in the higher range of your Fearless forecast (4 to 8”). Now, with the northwest flow in the wake of the departing system, I believe the might Allegheny upslope machine (high terrain induced) will squeeze another 3 to 6 inches of windblown powder out of the moist lower level atmosphere. Enjoy the occasional blizzard conditions throughout the day but use caution driving!

For verification purposes tomorrow morning, I’ll use observer reports for snowfall amounts for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday morning (24 hr. reports from about 8 am to 8 am) to verify Fearless forecast storm totals.

FEARLESS DAILY FORECAST

Monday: Temps move little, upper teens/mid 20’s (F). Upslope snow, occasionally moderate to heavy in pulsating intensities, diminishing as the day wears on. Plenty of blowing and drifting snow with wind gusts from the northwest at 35 to 45 MPH.

New 24-Hr. Snowfall by 8 am Tuesday: 3 to 6 inch

3-Day Event Total (Sun. through Tue.) Snowfall: 8 to 16 inches (range increases with multiple day events)

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with more accumulating snow possible by sunset as a warm frontal system approaches. Seasonably cold with low teens’s/upper twenties (F). Frontal related snow likely overnight.

New 24-Hr. Snowfall by 8 am Wednesday: 1 to 3 inch

Wednesday through Sunday: A moderating temperature trend follows Wednesday into Sunday with seasonable to above seasonal readings. Lows 20’s, highs 40’s F. Some precipitation (rain or snow) is possible. After that, it appears we will continue with above average temperatures for the following week also.

Snow-making Outlook: Conditions excellent through Tuesday before returning to more average seasonal diurnal ups and downs mid-week through next weekend.

Next update around 9 am tomorrow (Tuesday) morning will include storm total snowfall verification (forecast vs. measured snowfall amounts) plus updated snowfall forecast amounts for the next round of snow Tuesday evening.

For detailed up to date official NWS local forecasts, visit https://www.weather.gov/pbz/Pittsburgh, PA

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)